Debiased ML via NN for GLM

Posted on Nov 16, 2021 0 Comments

Tags: Generalized Linear Regression, Neural Nets, Debiased

This is the note for Chernozhukov, V., Newey, W. K., Quintas-Martinez, V., & Syrgkanis, V. (2021). Automatic Debiased Machine Learning via Neural Nets for Generalized Linear Regression. ArXiv:2104.14737 [Econ, Math, Stat].

give debiased machine learners of parameters of interest that depend on generalized linear regressions.

machine learners provide remarkably good predictions in a variety of settings but are inherently biased.

The bias arises from using regularization and/or model selection to control the variance of the prediction.

Confidence intervals based on estimators with approximately balanced variance and squared bias will tend to have poor coverage.

Consider iid observations $W_1,\ldots, W_n$ with $W_i$ having CDF $F_0$.

Take a function to depend on a vector of regressors $X$,

impose the restriction that $\gamma$ is in a set of functions $\Gamma$ that is linear and closed in mean square,

specify that the estimator $\gamma$ is an element of $\Gamma$ with probability one and has a probability limit $\gamma(F)$ when $F$ is the distribution of a single observation $W_i$.

Suppose that $\gamma(F)$ satisfies an orthogonality condition where a residual $\rho(W,\gamma)$ with finite second moment is orthogonal in the population to all $b\in \Gamma$.

\[E_F[b(X)\rho(W,\gamma(F))] = 0\]

for all $b\in \Gamma$ and $\gamma(F)\in\Gamma$.

• $\rho(W, \gamma)=Y-\gamma(X)$: orthogonality condition is necessary and sufficient for $\gamma(F)$ to be the least squares projection of $Y$ on $\Gamma$.
• quantile conditions $\rho(W,\gamma)=p-1(Y<\gamma(X))$
• first order conditions for generalized linear models, $\rho(W,\gamma)=\lambda(\gamma(X))[Y-\mu(\gamma(X))]$